Group update

This week, 09 September, marked World EV Day, offering a perfect opportunity to reflect on the progress we've made and the road ahead as we work to scale electric vehicles (EVs) across Prosus’ e-commerce ecosystems in Latin America, Europe, and India.

The EV Revolution In Action

During a recent visit to Delhi, I had an interesting experience that truly underscored the potential of electric vehicles. I booked a taxi through a ride-hailing app and, to my pleasant surprise, it turned out to be an electric car. Curious, I struck up a conversation with the driver to learn more about his experience. He shared how his operating costs had dramatically decreased; from 15 rupees per kilometre for fuel to just 1 rupee per kilometre for electricity. On average, he drives about 250 kilometres a day, which is well within the 350-kilometer range of his electric car. Charging is simple for him; he typically charges the car overnight or, if needed, at one of the fast-charging stations he locates through his app.

The driver also mentioned how a subsidy from the Delhi government significantly reduced the car's purchase price, and with the help of an affordable loan, the dream of owning an EV became a reality. The reduced fuel costs now cover his loan repayments, and in just three years, he will fully own the car.

What stood out the most to me, was the pride in his voice as he described his car—viewing it not just as a vehicle, but as an investment in his future. It was a reminder of how EVs are not only transforming transportation but also enabling individuals to take meaningful strides toward a better, more sustainable tomorrow.

This example encapsulates the transformative potential that electric vehicles (EVs) bring to the mobility and last-mile delivery sectors. This innovative technology empowers drivers—often referred to as gig workers—with opportunities to boost earnings, embrace entrepreneurial ventures, and build a sustainable livelihood. What’s more, it allows them to take pride in shaping their future while ensuring their vehicles contribute nothing to climate change, air pollution, or noise pollution within urban areas.

Advantages of Electric Vehicles

Climate: Over its lifetime, the emissions of a 2024 electric SUV are 71% lower compared to its fuel-powered equivalent in the US. In Indonesia, electric scooters have 26%–35% lower emissions over its lifecycle.

Air Quality: Electrifying all last-mile deliveries in India could reduce 25% of Delhi's air pollution, significantly improving urban air quality. In the US, large scale uptake of electric cars can improve air quality, preventing 2,400 premature deaths, corresponding to USD 25 billion health benefits across the top 5 cities.

Economy: Owning and operating an electric two-wheeler in India is 50% cheaper than its fuel-based counterpart. In Ghana, an EV cost 30% less to own than a conventional vehicle. in Kenya it is three times more expensive to own a petrol car than an electric one.

Society: Delivery drivers in India could boost their yearly earnings by 18% by switching to electric vehicles.

The combined economic, social, and environmental benefits (see above italics) make electric mobility an undeniably promising solution. With the projected growth of e commerce and last-mile deliveries, the prospects for electric mobility are even more compelling (see box below). And yet, despite this promise, electric vehicles remain far from ubiquitous in cities, and the transition is still in an early stage. Several barriers slow down progress. In this blog, three challenges that are more systemic, are examined and initiatives and solutions that are paving the way forward are highlighted.

Growth of last mile delivery sector

Africa: Last-mile delivery market in Africa is valued at USD 5.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$ 8.9 billion by 2031, with e-commerce tripling from 317 billion to 1 trillion by 2033

India: India’s last mile delivery market is projected to reach revenues of USD 15 billion by 2030. Its ecommerce is valued at $125 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $345 billion by 2030, a growth factor of 1.75

LatAm: Latin America’s last mile delivery market is expected to more than triple between 2024 and 2033, from an estimated USD 11.9 billion to 43.7 billion.

Economic Transitions Come With Business Risks

Societal transitions are often pioneered by innovators and entrepreneurs who take significant risks to lead the change. These early stages are often marked by uncertainties and failures. For example, several players in India's electric vehicle (EV) sector faced challenges during the transition. Ola Electric, one of India’s largest two-wheeler EV manufacturers with over 3,700 employees, faced insolvency petitions earlier this year due to unpaid vendor dues. Meanwhile, Hero Electric, previously manufacturing 100,000 electric two-wheelers annually, is currently undergoing insolvency proceedings. The situation intensified last July when BluSmart, an Indian ride-hailing company and its leasing partner Gensol filed for insolvency.

European firms haven’t been immune to these challenges either. Earlier this year, Swedish EV battery startup Northvolt, founded by two ex-Tesla executives and once hailed as a success story with more than €10 billion in financing, filed for bankruptcy. This collapse was attributed to rising capital costs, supply chain disruptions, and increasing geopolitical instability.

It’s easy to perceive electric vehicles as a high-risk endeavour when such instances dominate the headlines. However, the bigger picture tells a more positive story. For instance, EVs are rapidly gaining momentum worldwide. In 2024, over one in five new cars sold globally were electric, bringing the total global EV stock to more than 60 million. In India, EV adoption in two-wheelers represents 5% of annual sales, while electric three-wheelers achieved an impressive 53% market penetration. These trends underscore society’s growing embrace of EVs, driven by their undeniable technological and environmental advantages.

Government support is ramping up, giving incentives to growth and taking risks off the table. For example, India’s national government announced in September 2024 a two year scheme providing USD 1.3 billion to help get 2.5 million electric two-wheelers; 316,000 e-three wheelers; and 14,000 e-buses on the road. In South Africa, where the national production of EV is less developed compared to India, the government has announced a 150% tax deduction on investments in EV and hydrogen vehicle production. The Brazilian government program MOVER provides incentives that are driving over USD 26 billion in automaker investments.

The Capital Required to Scale

The evolution of any business-led transition powered by new technology follows a predictable growth cycle. Innovators and entrepreneurs lay the groundwork, refine technologies, and uncover opportunities. Once this foundation is established during the ‘Introduction phase’, the baton typically passes to larger, established corporations with the capacity to scale operations. We see this too in the wider green transition, with investments in climate mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity and other environmental conservation, is a substantial economic transition that requires large amounts of financing. It was only three years ago we passed the landmark of $1 trillion dollars in clean energy investments, which is, based on many accounts, still only a fraction of what we need to meet the global environmental agenda.

The scaling or Growth phase transforms the risk profile. The risks associated with unproven technology diminish, but the focus shifts to ensuring the success of business models built around this technology. However, scaling comes with its own set of challenges, particularly in terms of funding. To illustrate, it is estimated that in India, in order to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, $293 billion in financing would be needed. For EVs, the annual finance market is estimated to reach $50 billion dollars.

Risk-bearing capital like equity, which facilitates innovation and early growth, is ill suited to support scaling efforts. Instead, scaling demands large volumes of affordable capital, usually in the form of loans, to drive growth efficiently and sustainably.

We hosted a roundtable discussion in India with key stakeholders from the EV market, which brought a critical challenge to light: banks - the institutions that are able to provide the large sums of capital - are currently (still) unable to finance electric vehicles due to the high perceived business and technology risks. The necessary investments require collaboration to minimize the risk profile of EV ventures and leasing, creating inroads for companies and consumers to meet each other in personal and commercial EV markets. In order to identify a pathway to bankable solutions, participants of the roundtable collectively agreed to establish a consortium of OEMs, fleet aggregators, demand platforms, and financiers. This collaborative initiative will aim to identify, analyse, and redistribute these risks, ultimately working towards making EV financing more bankable.

Adaptation of Operations

At a glance, electric cars may not look significantly different from their fuel-powered counterparts, but, this similarity is misleading. Ensuring that electric mobility performs comparably to traditional vehicles—and avoids stranded electric vehicles on roads requires transformative changes in the way logistical operations are managed. In most markets, petrol stations and garages are ubiquitous, and fuel-powered engines generally boast a long range on a full tank. By contrast, battery-powered vehicles, which depend on charging or battery-swapping stations, demand a fundamentally different operational approach.

The network of charging and swapping stations is still evolving, the range of batteries improves with each new generation, and charging times are being reduced through the advent of fast-charging technology. Despite these advancements, commercial operators, who depend on timely deliveries and operate on small profit margins, must develop a deep understanding of factors like vehicle range, the available charging infrastructure, and the overall performance of electric vehicles to adapt their businesses successfully.

From our portfolio, Takealot, the leading e-tailer in South Africa, has already risen to this challenge. The company boasts the largest fleet of commercial electric trucks on the continent, using JAC trucks for mid-mile parcel transport from central warehouses to its distribution hubs. These electric trucks are primarily charged off-grid, with energy generated by rooftop solar panels and stored in large batteries. The trucks return to the warehouse 3 4 times per day, enabling quick battery recharges during loading cycles. This strategic investment has allowed Takealot to cut operational costs by 25%, though it required substantial effort to optimize route planning, train drivers, and construct the necessary infrastructure.

Similarly, in Brazil, our food delivery giant iFood is committed to scaling zero-emission deliveries as part of its broader decarbonization goals. The company is progressively introducing bicycles, electric bicycles, electric motorcycles, and electric cars into its delivery fleet. To achieve this, iFood is partnering with manufacturers to identify vehicles that suit local market conditions. Additionally, the company has developed smart algorithms to optimize delivery routes in urban centers, enabling shorter delivery distances. This logistical efficiency facilitates the use of affordable and widely available e-bicycles, expediting the transition to zero-emission vehicles. So far, these optimizations have already led to a 12% reduction in emissions per order.

First-mile logistics, with larger volumes and often longer distances, faces unique challenges. Promising initiatives, such as the development of 'green corridors' with charging infrastructure along high-traffic routes, could prove to be breakthroughs. These efforts have the potential to set the entire sector on a sustainable path toward electrification.

Looking Ahead

There is no need to question the electrification of mobility; the benefits demonstrably outweigh the challenges. However, the sooner we achieve widespread scaling, the greater the advantages we will realize across economic, societal, and environmental spheres. To accomplish this, collaborative efforts are essential to unlock capital, share risks, and adapt operational practices.

No, it is not just a matter of time, it is a matter of coming together and making it the new normal.

Written by Gerald Naber, Global Sustainability Principal, Prosus Group