Investor insights

AI poses a generational opportunity for value creation

We're on the edge of a massive shift. In 10 years, our society will look completely different. The speed is unreal.

AI is already reshaping entire industries. Look at companies like Lovable and Cursor - small teams within weeks that built businesses that are disrupting and transforming the coding landscape. This is just the start. Customer service, finance, logistics, sales - no sector will remain untouched.

As a tech optimist, I am excited about AI's potential. It'll help cure diseases and automate my tax return. But I also worry about the Netherlands and its economy.

AI is rewiring the global economy, shifting value from workers to whoever controls the models. Future wealth will depend on whether you're an "AI shaper" or an "AI taker".

The geopolitical reality: A two-horse race

The US and China are pouring billions into securing AI dominance. Silicon Valley attracts the world's brightest minds with unlimited resources. China mobilizes state resources for AI supremacy. Meanwhile, Europe watches from the sidelines, consuming AI models built elsewhere. For European companies and governments, this is uncomfortable but true: we risk becoming permanent dependents in the most important technology of our time.

The Netherlands: A talent powerhouse without momentum

Here's where it gets interesting. Europe's biggest concentration of AI talent isn't in London, Paris, or Berlin - it's in the Netherlands. We have 8% of Europe's AI talent (with just 2.8% of the population). Amsterdam ranks 5th in Europe for AI professionals, with over 7,000 practitioners. We attract top researchers from everywhere and consistently produce talent that the world's biggest companies desperately want.

But here's the paradox: having the ingredients doesn't mean you're baking the cake.

Where the magic isn't happening

While Paris, Munich and Zurich are rising fast, the Dutch startup scene lacks momentum. The country that gave us Booking.com and ASML is watching its AI ecosystem stagnate.

The talent problem is real but backwards. About 70% of Dutch AI practitioners work at old-economy companies or in government roles - great for retrofitting legacy industries, but not for building the next global tech leader.

Meanwhile, our brightest minds are heading to Silicon Valley. Dutch AI researchers are making waves at OpenAI, Google, and Meta - not because they lack patriotism, but because these companies offer what we can't: the opportunity to crack some of the biggest research questions with unlimited compute and datasets in collaboration with the world's greatest minds. We're becoming Europe's feeder club for American tech giants.

The funding gap is just as bad. Amsterdam ranks 18th globally for growth capital despite ranking 5th for talent. We have the talent, but we fail to feed our AI champions. And it's not like we're broke - we sit on the world's largest pension funds.

The trust paradox

Perhaps most puzzling: the Dutch don't trust AI. Despite housing some of Europe's most sophisticated AI talent, Dutch consumers show extraordinarily high levels of AI distrust. Only 43% actively use AI on a regular basis – the lowest in Europe.

This skepticism reflects a tendency to focus on AI regulation and ethics - admirable but missing the point. We're debating how to regulate AI while others are building it. But here's the uncomfortable truth: without a seat at the table, there will be nothing to regulate. You can't shape the rules of a game you're not playing. While we debate AI ethics, American and Chinese companies are writing the code that will define our future.

The window is closing

Five years ago, the Netherlands was at the AI forefront. Today, it's mostly consuming American AI models while our talent emigrates. The Netherlands risks being sidelined in the most important technological revolution of our time - not because it lacks capability or capital, but because it's focused on the wrong priorities. While competitors build AI empires, the Dutch debate governance and regulations. The irony is tragic: the country that wants to lead on responsible AI may end up with none of its own AI to govern responsibly.

The path forward: Eight concrete actions

The Netherlands has unique advantages that most countries would envy. We have the money and the talent. We can do this! The country boasts the densest AI talent pool in Europe, is home to European tech champions like Booking, Adyen and ASML, and we can compete with the best in certain huge global sectors such as Finance, Food and Agri. But advantages mean nothing without action.

Here are eight concrete steps to turn potential into power:

1. AI Hub: Launch a campus-style AI Hub in Amsterdam to concentrate talent and capital, similar to Station F in Paris or Merantix in Berlin.
2. Talent Strategy: Attract more top AI talent through fast visas, VC and R&D budgets, and negotiate strategic "re-imports" through joint labs, spin-outs, and shared IP arrangements.
3. Growth Capital: Mobilize local pension funds to fill the growth capital gap that's preventing Dutch AI companies from scaling. Right now we still have the money - but AI is reshaping workforces globally. If we don't invest this money now in building our AI capabilities, there may be no pensions left to manage.
4. Big Tech R&D: Get (European) Big Tech companies to concentrate their R&D efforts in The Netherlands.
5. AI Awareness: Start a national campaign to accelerate the adoption of AI in Dutch society.
6. AI Sovereignty: Build infrastructure to develop critical AI systems and models independently, including the proposed AI Gigafactory.
7. Moonshot Programs: Launch an AI X-Prize competition for 2-4 ambitious projects that the entire community can rally behind.
8. Government Catalyst: Let the government act as a major procurer, invest in AI-enabled Defense applications, and open up public datasets.

The moment of choice

The Netherlands stands at a crossroads. It has all the ingredients to become an AI powerhouse - world-class talent, deep pockets, innovative companies, and an open society. The question isn't capability; it's will.

Will the Netherlands choose to lead in the age of AI, or will we allow others to shape our future?

The age of AI is here. The Netherlands can be a shaper or a taker. Which will it choose?

Based on "State of AI in The Netherlands: Igniting Europe's Hidden AI Talent Powerhouse" - a comprehensive analysis by Prosus, Dealroom.co, and Techleap of the Dutch AI ecosystem's strengths, challenges, and path forward.

Sebastiaan Vaessen is a board member of Dealroom.co and co-founder of venture capital firm Coalition Capital.

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